Peak oil

Hubbert's graph of peak oil

File:Hubbert Upper-Bound Peak 1956.png

Hubbert's prediction for the United States (red) and actual production (greeen)

Peak oil is the idea that at some point an oil well, an oil field, a country, or the world, will be producing the most crude oil it can ever produce at one time. After this point, less oil will be produced and therefore people will have to use less oil because it will cost more money. Many scientists and governments are concerned about what will happen when there is less oil to go around.

The first person to come up with this idea was M.K. Hubbert in the 1950s and 1960s, who said that a graph of oil production looks like a curve (which we now call Hubbert's Curve). Hubbert drew a graph in 1956 that predicted that the United States would reach its peak oil in the early 1970s. The United States did indeed reach its peak oil in the early 1970s.

It is unclear as to when the world's peak oil will happen, though many scientists agree that it was reached in the early 2000s or before 2020. For example, in 2010 the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said that peak oil may have happened in 2006.

Peak Oil Media

• Global liquids production 2000–2015, indicating the component of US tight oil (Energy Information Administration)

• OilProductionTightTotalHubbert-dec2021.svg

  Total and Non-Tight Oil US Production (up to December 2021). Data from the US Energy Information Administration website

• US Crude Oil Production and Imports.svg

  In 2014, United States crude oil production exceeded imports for the first time since the early 1990s.

• World crude discovery production U-2200Gb LaherrereMar2015.jpg

  World oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s.

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  Proven oil reserves, 2013

• OPEC declared reserves 1980-now EIA.svg

  Graph of OPEC reported reserves showing jumps in stated reserves without associated discoveries, as well as the lack of depletion despite yearly production

• Syncrude mildred lake plant.jpg

  Syncrude's Mildred Lake mine site and plant near Fort McMurray, Alberta

• Texas Oil Production 1935-2012.png

  Texas oil production declined since peaking in 1972 but had a resurgence in the 2010s due to tight oil production. Note: This chart is outdated, and as of 2024 Texas produces 5.7 million barrels per day (2,080 million barrels per year).