2021 Virginia gubernatorial election

The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election happened on November 2, 2021, to elect the next governor of Virginia. Incumbent Governor Ralph Northam is unable to run, as the Constitution of Virginia does not allow terms to be served in a row.

2021 Virginia gubernatorial election

← 2017 November 2, 2021[1] 2025 →
Turnout55.3% Increase 7.7
  Glenn Youngkin Headshot (cropped 2).jpg Terry McAuliffe 2020 (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee Glenn Youngkin Terry McAuliffe
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,663,596 1,600,116
Percentage 50.6% 48.6%

2021 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County and independent city results
Youngkin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
McAuliffe:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

Governor before election

Ralph Northam
Democratic

Elected Governor

Glenn Youngkin
Republican

The Democratic Party chose previous Governor Terry McAuliffe, and the Republican Party chose Glenn Youngkin. Teacher Princess Blanding ran under the new Liberation Party.

In the general election on November 2, Republican Glenn Youngkin won the election over Democrat and former Governor Terry McAuliffe, making him the first Republican to win a statewide election in Virginia since 2009.[2]

Democratic primary election

Candidates

Chosen

Lost in primary election

Withdrew

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Terry
McAuliffe (D)
Glenn
Youngkin (R)
Princess
Blanding (Lib.)
Other Undecided
Research Co. October 31 – November 1, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 48% 2% 3%
Targoz Market Research October 26 – November 1, 2021 747 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 47% 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 29–31, 2021 1,081 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 2% 2%
InsiderAdvantage (R) Archived 2022-04-17 at the Wayback Machine October 27–30, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 47% 2% 6%
Echelon Insights Archived 2021-10-29 at the Wayback Machine October 27–29, 2021 611 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 49% 2% 4%
Roanoke College October 14–28, 2021 571 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 47% 1% 0% 4%
Fox News October 24–27, 2021 1,212 (RV) ± 2.5% 47% 48% 2% 3%
1,015 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 53% 1% 1%
Washington Post/Schar School October 20–26, 2021 1,107 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 44% 3% 2%[b] 3%
49% 45% 3%[c] 4%
918 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 48% 1% 0%[d] 2%
49% 48% 0%[e] 2%
Christopher Newport University October 17–25, 2021 944 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 48% 1% 1%
Suffolk University October 21–24, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 45% 2% 7%
Emerson College October 22–23, 2021 875 (LV) ± 3.2% 48% 48% 1% 3%
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 1] October 20–21, 2021 785 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 47% 5% 5%
Cygnal (R) October 19–21, 2021 816 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 48% 1% 3%
KAConsulting LLC (R)[upper-alpha 2] October 18–21, 2021 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 43% 1% 15%
Virginia Commonwealth University October 9–21, 2021 722 (LV) ± 6.4% 41% 38% 10% 11%
Monmouth University October 16–19, 2021 1,005 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 46% 2% 7%
1,005 (LV)[f] 45% 48%
1,005 (LV)[g] 48% 45%
Data for Progress (D) October 4–15, 2021 1,589 (LV) ± 2.0% 50% 45% 2% 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 11–13, 2021 1,095 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 1% 3%
Fox News October 10–13, 2021 1,004 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 41% 2% 5%
726 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 46% 1% 2%
Schoen Cooperman Research (D) October 9–12, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 43% 0% 10%
YouGov/CBS News October 4–11, 2021 1,040 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 47% 2% 0%
Christopher Newport University September 27 – October 6, 2021 802 (LV) ± 4.2% 49% 45% 1% 5%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2021 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 48% 1% 2%
Fox News September 26–29, 2021 901 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% 1% 7%
Roanoke College September 12–26, 2021 603 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 41% 1% 1% 9%
Monmouth University September 22–26, 2021 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 43% 2% 8%
801 (LV)[f] 48% 45%
801 (LV)[g] 50% 43%
Global Strategy Group (D) Archived 2022-03-16 at the Wayback Machine September 16–20, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 45% 7%
KAConsulting LLC (R)[upper-alpha 2] September 17–19, 2021 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 42% 1% 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] September 17–18, 2021 875 (V) ± 3.3% 45% 42% 13%
Virginia Commonwealth University September 7–15, 2021 731 (LV) ± 6.9% 43% 34% 10% 13%
Emerson College September 13–14, 2021 778 (LV) ± 3.4% 49% 45% 2% 5%
University of Mary Washington September 7–13, 2021 1,000 (A) ± 3.1% 43% 38% 2% 6%[h] 11%
885 (RV) ± 3.3% 46% 41% 2%
528 (LV) ± 4.1% 43% 48% 2% 2%[i] 6%
Washington Post/Schar School September 7–13, 2021 907 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 43% 3% 4%
728 (LV) ± 4.5% 50% 47% 1% 2%
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 4] August 30 – September 2, 2021 734 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 48% 3% 4%
48% 48% 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 26–29, 2021 1,074 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 46% 2% 5%
Monmouth University August 24–29, 2021 802 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 42% 2% 9%
802 (LV)[f] 47% 45%
802 (LV)[g] 49% 42%
Christopher Newport University August 15–23, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 41% 3% 6%
Change Research (D) August 17–21, 2021 1,653 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 43% 3% 5%
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 5] August 14–18, 2021 1,334 (LV) ± 2.7% 47% 44% 9%
Roanoke College August 3–17, 2021 558 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 38% 2% 1% 13%
Virginia Commonwealth University August 4–15, 2021 770 (RV) ± 5.4% 40% 37% 15% 9%
~747 (LV) ± 5.5% 40% 37% 14% 9%
co/efficient (R) August 8–9, 2021 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 45% 8%
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 4] August 3–5, 2021 734 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 43% 3% 4%
51% 45% 4%
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 6] July 25–27, 2021 762 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 40% 2% 13%
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 8–10, 2021 1,104 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 45% 4% 4%
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 7] July 6–9, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 2% 10%
JMC Analytics and Polling (R) June 9–12, 2021 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 42% 12%
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 4] June 2–6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 46% 5%

Graph

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Without convention polling

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Results

2021 Virginia gubernatorial election[3]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Glenn Youngkin 1,663,596 50.57 +5.60
Democratic Terry McAuliffe 1,600,116 48.64 -5.26
Liberation Princess Blanding 23,125 0.70 New party
Write-in 2,593 0.08 +0.03
Total votes 3,289,403 100.00 N/A
Turnout
Registered electors 5,951,368
Republican gain from Democrat

Republican convention election

A convention is a different way to choose a person for an election. This Republican convention used a method of voting called instant-runoff voting to choose a person for the general election.

The Republican Party of Virginia chose a convention on December 5, 2020 with a vote. The vote was 41 to 28.[4] This decision started debates internally. At first, state senator Amanda Chase was going to run as an independent, but decided to run in the convention.[5]

Chosen at convention

Lost at convention

Primary polling

Source Date(s) Participants[a] Possible %
of error
Amanda
Chase
Kirk
Cox
Sergio
de la Peña
Peter
Doran
Octavia
Johnson
Pete
Snyder
Glenn
Youngkin
Other Undecided
Change Research (D) May 5–6, 2021 605 (LV) ± 4.4% 29% 7% 2% 0% 1% 13% 25% 25%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] April 2021 695 (LV) ± 3.7% 22% 7% 3% 1% 0% 16% 21% 30%
Christopher Newport University January 31 – February 14, 2021 370 (RV) ± 5.6% 17% 10% 3% 55%
YouGov Blue (D) February 6–11, 2021 170 (RV) ± 8.6% 24% 7% 1% 13% 5% 0% 54%

Convention polling

Source Date(s) Participants[a] Possible %
of error
Amanda
Chase
Kirk
Cox
Pete
Snyder
Glenn
Youngkin
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[upper-alpha 9] April 29 – May 3, 2021 3,896 (LV) ± 1.6% 10% 10% 26% 38% 13% 3%
 
Final results by county and independent city:

General election

Predictions

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Terry
McAuliffe (D)
Glenn
Youngkin (R)
Other/Undecided
[j]
Margin
Real Clear Politics October 20–31, 2021 November 1, 2021 46.8% 48.5% 4.8% Youngkin +1.7%
FiveThirtyEight August 1 – November 1, 2021 November 1, 2021 47.0% 47.9% 5.1% Youngkin +1.0%
Average 46.9% 48.2% 5.0% Youngkin +1.4%

2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Election Media

Related pages

Notes

  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named Key.
  2. Would not vote and None of these with 1%
  3. Neither with 2%, Would not vote with 1%
  4. Would not vote and None of these with 0%
  5. Would not vote and Neither with 0%
  6. 6.0 6.1 6.2 Weighted toward more low-propensity voters
  7. 7.0 7.1 7.2 Weighted toward fewer low-propensity voters
  8. None/Would not vote with 5%, other/write-in with 1%
  9. None/Would not vote and other/write-in with 1%
  10. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. Regions defined in a Washington Post article.
  1. This poll was sponsored by Winsome Sears's campaign
  2. 2.0 2.1 This poll was sponsored by the Presidential Coalition
  3. This poll was sponsored by Protect Our Care
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign
  5. This poll was sponsored by Future Majority
  6. This poll was sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy – VA
  7. This poll was sponsored by the American Principles Project
  8. This poll was sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  9. This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign

References

  1. 2021 November General . Virginia Department of Elections. Report.
  2. "LIVE COVERAGE: Youngkin wins in Virginia; New Jersey governor's race in dead heat". The Hill. November 2, 2021.
  3. "2021 November General". results.elections.virginia.gov. Archived from the original on April 12, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2021.
  4. "RPV State Central Committee Meeting;Voted Convention for 2021;Live Updates – Bearing Drift". bearingdrift.com. Retrieved 2020-12-05.
  5. Oliver, Ned (2020-12-05). "Chase promises to run as independent for governor after Va. GOP opts for convention over primary". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved 2020-12-05.