2021 Virginia gubernatorial election
The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election happened on November 2, 2021, to elect the next governor of Virginia. Incumbent Governor Ralph Northam is unable to run, as the Constitution of Virginia does not allow terms to be served in a row.
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Turnout | 55.3% 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||
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County and independent city results Youngkin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% McAuliffe: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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The Democratic Party chose previous Governor Terry McAuliffe, and the Republican Party chose Glenn Youngkin. Teacher Princess Blanding ran under the new Liberation Party.
In the general election on November 2, Republican Glenn Youngkin won the election over Democrat and former Governor Terry McAuliffe, making him the first Republican to win a statewide election in Virginia since 2009.[2]
Democratic primary election
Candidates
Chosen
- Terry McAuliffe, previous governor of Virginia (2014-2018).
Lost in primary election
- Jennifer Carroll Foy, previous state delegate for the 2nd house district (2018-2020).
- Lee J. Carter, state delegate for the 50th house district.
- Justin Fairfax, Lieutenant governor of Virginia.
- Jennifer McClellan, state senator for the 9th senate district, previous state delegate for the 71st district (2006-2017).
Withdrew
- Mark Herring, attorney general of Virginia and previous state senator for the 33rd district (2006-2014).
Polling
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Terry McAuliffe (D) |
Glenn Youngkin (R) |
Princess Blanding (Lib.) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co. | October 31 – November 1, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 48% | 2% | – | 3% |
Targoz Market Research | October 26 – November 1, 2021 | 747 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 47% | – | – | 3% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 29–31, 2021 | 1,081 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | – | 2% | 2% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) Archived 2022-04-17 at the Wayback Machine | October 27–30, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 2% | – | 6% |
Echelon Insights Archived 2021-10-29 at the Wayback Machine | October 27–29, 2021 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 2% | – | 4% |
Roanoke College | October 14–28, 2021 | 571 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 47% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
Fox News | October 24–27, 2021 | 1,212 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 48% | – | 2% | 3% |
1,015 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 53% | – | 1% | 1% | ||
Washington Post/Schar School | October 20–26, 2021 | 1,107 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 44% | 3% | 2%[b] | 3% |
49% | 45% | – | 3%[c] | 4% | ||||
918 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | 1% | 0%[d] | 2% | ||
49% | 48% | – | 0%[e] | 2% | ||||
Christopher Newport University | October 17–25, 2021 | 944 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 48% | 1% | – | 1% |
Suffolk University | October 21–24, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | 2% | – | 7% |
Emerson College | October 22–23, 2021 | 875 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 48% | 1% | – | 3% |
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 1] | October 20–21, 2021 | 785 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 47% | 5% | – | 5% |
Cygnal (R) | October 19–21, 2021 | 816 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 48% | 1% | – | 3% |
KAConsulting LLC (R)[upper-alpha 2] | October 18–21, 2021 | 661 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 43% | – | 1% | 15% |
Virginia Commonwealth University | October 9–21, 2021 | 722 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 41% | 38% | – | 10% | 11% |
Monmouth University | October 16–19, 2021 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 46% | – | 2% | 7% |
1,005 (LV)[f] | 45% | 48% | – | – | – | |||
1,005 (LV)[g] | 48% | 45% | – | – | – | |||
Data for Progress (D) | October 4–15, 2021 | 1,589 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 50% | 45% | – | 2% | 3% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 11–13, 2021 | 1,095 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | – | 1% | 3% |
Fox News | October 10–13, 2021 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 41% | – | 2% | 5% |
726 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | ||
Schoen Cooperman Research (D) | October 9–12, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 43% | – | 0% | 10% |
YouGov/CBS News | October 4–11, 2021 | 1,040 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 47% | – | 2% | 0% |
Christopher Newport University | September 27 – October 6, 2021 | 802 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 45% | 1% | – | 5% |
Emerson College | October 1–3, 2021 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 48% | – | 1% | 2% |
Fox News | September 26–29, 2021 | 901 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 1% | 7% |
Roanoke College | September 12–26, 2021 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 41% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
Monmouth University | September 22–26, 2021 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | – | 2% | 8% |
801 (LV)[f] | 48% | 45% | – | – | – | |||
801 (LV)[g] | 50% | 43% | – | – | – | |||
Global Strategy Group (D) Archived 2022-03-16 at the Wayback Machine | September 16–20, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | – | – | 7% |
KAConsulting LLC (R)[upper-alpha 2] | September 17–19, 2021 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 42% | – | 1% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] | September 17–18, 2021 | 875 (V) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 42% | – | – | 13% |
Virginia Commonwealth University | September 7–15, 2021 | 731 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 43% | 34% | – | 10% | 13% |
Emerson College | September 13–14, 2021 | 778 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 45% | – | 2% | 5% |
University of Mary Washington | September 7–13, 2021 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 38% | 2% | 6%[h] | 11% |
885 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 41% | 2% | – | – | ||
528 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 48% | 2% | 2%[i] | 6% | ||
Washington Post/Schar School | September 7–13, 2021 | 907 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | – | 3% | 4% |
728 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 47% | – | 1% | 2% | ||
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 4] | August 30 – September 2, 2021 | 734 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 48% | 3% | – | 4% |
48% | 48% | – | – | 4% | ||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 26–29, 2021 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | – | 2% | 5% |
Monmouth University | August 24–29, 2021 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 42% | – | 2% | 9% |
802 (LV)[f] | 47% | 45% | – | – | – | |||
802 (LV)[g] | 49% | 42% | – | – | – | |||
Christopher Newport University | August 15–23, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 41% | 3% | – | 6% |
Change Research (D) | August 17–21, 2021 | 1,653 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 43% | 3% | – | 5% |
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 5] | August 14–18, 2021 | 1,334 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 47% | 44% | – | – | 9% |
Roanoke College | August 3–17, 2021 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 38% | 2% | 1% | 13% |
Virginia Commonwealth University | August 4–15, 2021 | 770 (RV) | ± 5.4% | 40% | 37% | – | 15% | 9% |
~747 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 40% | 37% | – | 14% | 9% | ||
co/efficient (R) | August 8–9, 2021 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 45% | – | – | 8% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 4] | August 3–5, 2021 | 734 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 43% | 3% | – | 4% |
51% | 45% | – | – | 4% | ||||
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 6] | July 25–27, 2021 | 762 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 40% | 2% | – | 13% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 8–10, 2021 | 1,104 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 45% | – | 4% | 4% |
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 7] | July 6–9, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | – | 2% | 10% |
JMC Analytics and Polling (R) | June 9–12, 2021 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 42% | – | – | 12% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 4] | June 2–6, 2021 | 506 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | – | – | 5% |
Graph
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- Without convention polling
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Results
2021 Virginia gubernatorial election[3] | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
Republican | Glenn Youngkin | 1,663,596 | 50.57 | +5.60 | |
Democratic | Terry McAuliffe | 1,600,116 | 48.64 | -5.26 | |
Liberation | Princess Blanding | 23,125 | 0.70 | New party | |
Write-in | 2,593 | 0.08 | +0.03 | ||
Total votes | 3,289,403 | 100.00 | N/A | ||
Turnout | |||||
Registered electors | 5,951,368 | ||||
Republican gain from Democrat |
Republican convention election
A convention is a different way to choose a person for an election. This Republican convention used a method of voting called instant-runoff voting to choose a person for the general election.
The Republican Party of Virginia chose a convention on December 5, 2020 with a vote. The vote was 41 to 28.[4] This decision started debates internally. At first, state senator Amanda Chase was going to run as an independent, but decided to run in the convention.[5]
Chosen at convention
- Glenn Youngkin, former co-CEO of The Carlyle Group.
Lost at convention
- Amanda Chase, state senator for the 11th senate district.
- Kirk Cox, state delegate for the 66th house district, and previous Speaker of Virginia House of Delegates (2018-2020).
- Sergio de la Peña, previous U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Western Hemisphere Affairs.
- Peter Doran, previous CEO.
- Octavia Johnson, previous sheriff of Roanoke City (2006-2013).
- Pete Snyder, previous candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Virginia in 2013.
Primary polling
Source | Date(s) | Participants[a] | Possible % of error |
Amanda Chase |
Kirk Cox |
Sergio de la Peña |
Peter Doran |
Octavia Johnson |
Pete Snyder |
Glenn Youngkin |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) | May 5–6, 2021 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 29% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 13% | 25% | – | 25% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] | April 2021 | 695 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 22% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 16% | 21% | – | 30% |
Christopher Newport University | January 31 – February 14, 2021 | 370 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 17% | 10% | – | – | – | – | 3% | – | 55% |
YouGov Blue (D) | February 6–11, 2021 | 170 (RV) | ± 8.6% | 24% | 7% | 1% | – | – | 13% | 5% | 0% | 54% |
Convention polling
Source | Date(s) | Participants[a] | Possible % of error |
Amanda Chase |
Kirk Cox |
Pete Snyder |
Glenn Youngkin |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R)[upper-alpha 9] | April 29 – May 3, 2021 | 3,896 (LV) | ± 1.6% | 10% | 10% | 26% | 38% | 13% | 3% |
General election
Predictions
- Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Terry McAuliffe (D) |
Glenn Youngkin (R) |
Other/Undecided [j] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | October 20–31, 2021 | November 1, 2021 | 46.8% | 48.5% | 4.8% | Youngkin +1.7% |
FiveThirtyEight | August 1 – November 1, 2021 | November 1, 2021 | 47.0% | 47.9% | 5.1% | Youngkin +1.0% |
Average | 46.9% | 48.2% | 5.0% | Youngkin +1.4% |
2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Election Media
Results by region[k]
Related pages
Notes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>
tag; no text was provided for refs namedKey
. - ↑ Would not vote and None of these with 1%
- ↑ Neither with 2%, Would not vote with 1%
- ↑ Would not vote and None of these with 0%
- ↑ Would not vote and Neither with 0%
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Weighted toward more low-propensity voters
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 Weighted toward fewer low-propensity voters
- ↑ None/Would not vote with 5%, other/write-in with 1%
- ↑ None/Would not vote and other/write-in with 1%
- ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ↑ Regions defined in a Washington Post article.
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Winsome Sears's campaign
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 This poll was sponsored by the Presidential Coalition
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Protect Our Care
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Future Majority
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy – VA
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by the American Principles Project
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign
References
- ↑ 2021 November General . Virginia Department of Elections. Report.
- ↑ "LIVE COVERAGE: Youngkin wins in Virginia; New Jersey governor's race in dead heat". The Hill. November 2, 2021.
- ↑ "2021 November General". results.elections.virginia.gov. Archived from the original on April 12, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2021.
- ↑ "RPV State Central Committee Meeting;Voted Convention for 2021;Live Updates – Bearing Drift". bearingdrift.com. Retrieved 2020-12-05.
- ↑ Oliver, Ned (2020-12-05). "Chase promises to run as independent for governor after Va. GOP opts for convention over primary". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved 2020-12-05.